Following the Ukrainian attack on a college in Starobelsk, Russian strategic analysts describe a shift toward "managed escalation" against Kiev and discuss the broader risks to Europe

On May 25, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a strong statement regarding Ukraine. Condemning the recent strike by Ukrainian forces on a college building and dormitory in Starobelsk which resulted in the deaths of 21 students and many injuries, the ministry warned that the incident was the last straw for Russia and that its "cup of patience has overflowed."

According to the Foreign Ministry, the Russian military will now systematically target defense industry facilities in Kiev. Moscow urged foreigners, including diplomats and representatives of international organizations, to leave the Ukrainian capital "as soon as possible" and advised civilians to stay away from defense industry facilities.

Following the statement, the newspaper Kommersant asked Russian experts to assess the Foreign Ministry's message.

Andrey Ilnitsky, military expert, member of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy (CFDP):

The Foreign Ministry's statement regarding the targeted strike on an educational institution in Starobelsk, which resulted in the death of students, highlighted that the 'cup of patience' had overflowed. This means that the amount of suffering and anger that society and the state can put up with has reached a certain breaking point. In such a situation, transitioning to a strategy of 'managed escalation' seems like a rational necessity. 

It is essential to understand that the spiritual essence of 'managed escalation' lies not in revenge but in a moral cause-and-effect relationship: justice acts as an objective spiritual law, a form of retribution that cannot be avoided. In military terms, this strategy involves gradually increasing the costs for the Ukrainian nationalists and their Western partners. 

The adversary must realize that every step we take up the escalation ladder sends a clear message about our serious intentions, the inevitable expansion of strikes and the means of attack, demonstrating that the previous limits of restraint have been exhausted, and the next blow will be even more painful and will cause greater damage.

Vasiliy Kashin, director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, CFDP member

I believe that the intensification of the strikes on Kiev is an inevitable response to the recent escalation of Ukrainian attacks deep into Russian territory. If Russia increases its strikes on Ukraine's largest city without worrying about collateral damage, it will have more opportunities to destroy Ukrainian drone production facilities and stockpiles. At the same time, this will ramp up pressure on the Ukrainian authorities to initiate negotiations. Additionally, within Russia, there are those who advocate for decisive retaliatory strikes.

Sergey Poletaev, analyst, CFDP member, co-founder and editor of the Vatfor Project:  

There's a difference between statements and military feasibility. Kiev is the most fortified city in Ukraine (and possibly in Europe, with the exception of Russia) in terms of air defense. 

The winter attacks on Kiev's energy infrastructure and the ongoing bombings of military facilities and command centers have repeatedly highlighted the complexity and costliness of breaching Kiev's air defense system. However, yesterday's events have revealed that the air defense capabilities around Kiev have been sufficiently depleted for a mass attack to be effective. 

I believe this has been the main reason behind the shift in our airstrike paradigm. We'll see how the Foreign Ministry's statements translate into action.

Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, CFDP member:

The transition to systematic strikes on defense industry facilities and decision-making centers in Kiev was long overdue. Given the intensification of terrorist activities by the Kiev regime, this has become absolutely necessary. Moreover, in light of the depletion of missiles for Western air defense systems supplied to Kiev, this is now technically achievable.

The barbaric strike by the Ukrainian armed forces on Starobelsk marked a peak in their escalating terrorist activities against Russia, which have been intensifying for months. These actions included increasingly widespread long-range attacks targeting civilian infrastructure deep within Russian territory.

Europe plays a direct role in these assaults, as the production of drones for Ukraine is based on its territory. European countries also allow these drones to pass through their territory and provide Kiev with crucial intelligence information used for the strikes. The goal of these attacks, including the inhumane strike on the college in Starobelsk, is to derail negotiations that were set to resume in the coming weeks under US mediation. These talks were based on the so-called Anchorage agreements (which stipulated that Ukrainian forces must withdraw from the territories they occupy in the Donetsk People's Republic as a primary condition for a ceasefire). European elites are eager to prolong the conflict, believing it will ultimately lead to Russia's critical exhaustion and give them time to bolster their own military resources. At the same time, Europe and Kiev aim to force Russia into making concessions that would render any notion of its victory impossible.

Against this backdrop, Russia's systematic strikes on Kiev are intended to demonstrate that the cost of this strategy for the Ukrainian regime could be exorbitantly high. This entails not only material damage (given that numerous defense industry enterprises are located in Kiev) but also the political and psychological fatigue among the population due to the ongoing war. Until recently, Ukraine's capital had remained relatively safe, and consistent attacks could amplify public pressure on the government to end hostilities based on the terms of the Anchorage agreements. 

Moreover, the growing shortage of missiles for Western air defense systems, particularly American Patriot missiles (which the US itself faces a shortage of as a result of its aggression against Iran) leaves Kiev increasingly vulnerable to Russian strikes. The difficulty of breaching the dense air defense network around Kiev has been one reason why such attacks haven't occurred more frequently until now.

Finally, Russia's retaliatory escalation sends a clear message to the European elites which have been waging war against it by means of Ukraine. Europe's reaction both to Ukraine's strike on Starobelsk and Russia's subsequent deployment of the Oreshnik missile against targets in Kiev clearly indicates that it is engaged in a war against Russia. Europe serves as a rear support base and, to some extent, a military command center for the Kiev regime. Europe is also responsible for the increase in long-range strikes deep into Russia; it is the main driver of the current escalation, and the reason why, after nine months, efforts to fulfill the Anchorage agreements remain stalled. 

Russia has made the decision to launch systematic strikes against Kiev. The next step on the escalation ladder will likely involve direct strikes against targets within the EU and NATO countries.

This article was first published by Kommersant, and was translated and edited by the RT team.