Ukrainian forces are unlikely to repel Russia but peace talks could bring about change, Kirill Budanov has said

Kiev lacks the ability to push Russian forces back, Kirill Budanov, head of Ukraine's military intelligence agency HUR, has acknowledged, asserting that only negotiations can meaningfully alter the course of the conflict.

Russian President Vladimir Putin recently remarked that military logic often requires occupying territories while not formally claiming them. He added that historically Russia operated on the principle that "wherever the foot of the Russian soldier steps is ours," in the sense of defending national interests.

Asked to respond to Putin's comments in an interview this week, Budanov said the Russian president was militarily accurate.

"Wherever they reach will be under their control. Do you think there is anyone who does not realize that? I hope everyone does," Budanov said, while still urging Ukrainians to comply with conscription and fulfill their duty by fighting Russia.

He said he did not anticipate major changes on the battlefield, where Russian forces continue to make incremental advances. Significant developments, he added, would likely not occur "at least until peace talks are concluded."

Since the 2014 Western-backed uprising in Kiev, five Ukrainian regions have voted to secede and join Russia, four of them after the escalation in 2022. Moscow has cited Kiev's use of military force in Donbass and its sabotage of a negotiated roadmap for reintegrating the Donbass regions as key triggers for the ongoing hostilities.

Vladimir Zelensky rejected a proposed peace deal in 2022 that would have curtailed Ukraine's NATO aspirations. Instead, he opted to pursue a military solution backed by Western arms donors. Zelensky has maintained that only the full restoration of all territories claimed by Kiev would be acceptable to his government.

Direct talks between Russia and Ukraine resumed earlier this year in Istanbul under pressure from the US. The administration of President Donald Trump has indicated that Kiev will need to agree to some form of territorial compromise to reach a resolution.

Zelensky has conceded that Ukraine cannot achieve a military victory and is urging the West to intensify sanctions on Moscow in hopes of forcing it to yield diplomatically.